Toyota Electric Vehicles: Where Are They?

by Jean-Louis Gassée

Toyota isn’t as conservative as their cautious management might make it look. They successfully innovated with hybrid technology, but they shun battery electric vehicles and make what seems to be a lonely bet on hydrogen fuel-cell cars. How will this turn out?

While many modern automakers feel the need to proudly feature Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in their product lines, some car companies are more sincere than others. Take Nissan, for example. The Nissan Leaf — a real BEV — has been regularly improved since its introduction in 2010 and the attention has paid off: Global sales have topped 400,000, with more models sold in the US than in the company’s native Japan. And, of course, we have our Silicon Valley Tesla with its twitterer-in-chief Elon Musk on his way to producing an “estimated” 400,000 vehicles this year, a number that has been elastically transformed into 500K “annualized” for the end of 2019. It’s quite an achievement either way, and one that forces classical competitors to join the BEV marching band.

In Germany, Audi is now taking reservations for its elegant 2019 e-tron in the $80K price range, and Mercedes will offer its no less elegant EQC in 2020 (although its 80kWh battery means a shorter range than most Teslas).

If you’re into sports cars, Porsche’s Taycan promises to be a more interesting vehicle. In “leaks” to the hungry auto press, Porsche hints at high performance capabilities that are unusual in a BEV. We’ll see soon enough — the Taycan is scheduled to be fully revealed on September 4th. As Audi and Mercedes do for their BEVs, the Taycan carries a strong family resemblance to other Porsche creations. No word on price other than it, too, will be Porsche-like.

While BEVs are often loss leaders — Chevy loses $7k on each Bolt it sells — Porsche’s pricing power and Taycan’s performance might allow the vehicle to actually make money for the Volkswagen group.

BMW is an interesting case. At its own July 2019 BEV event, BMW’s management calls electric vehicles “overhyped”, claims that there’s no demand for them, appears to admit they can’t compete with Tesla, and worries about their cost (a universal automaker complaint). But from the other side of their corporate propaganda orifice, BMW promises they’ll have 25 electric cars by 2025. In the meantime, their i3 and i8 electric vehicles have tiny battery packs (7.1kWh for the i8, 22 to 42kWh for the i3) that can be configured with auxiliary gasoline engines. I think of BMW as “semi-sincere”.

Things get more interesting when we turn to Toyota. No BEV hype here, but a full and exclusive commitment to hybrids, with a clearly stated skepticism about BEVs:

“We understand that electric is very necessary — more than some, perhaps, with our early move to hybrid, but we can also see that full EV will not suit everyone. You can’t make an electric Land Cruiser work, for instance — and there are people in remote parts of the world whose lives depend on that car.”

It’s a rational argument…or is Toyota simply too big, too comfortable in its perch at the top of the auto industry, too conservative for its own good? Perhaps, but we shouldn’t forget how Toyota embraced hybrid technology in the late 90’s.

In the US, Honda was the first automaker to offer a hybrid. The tiny, two-door 1999 Insight hatchback was an impressive family vehicle, one whose mileage performance attracted a new class of drivers soon called hypermilers. Impressive, but not practical: I couldn’t see taking our three children aboard.

Then, in the summer of 2000 — right after a Docomo dealer refused to sell me one of their mobile internet phones — I saw a Toyota Prius on the street in Kyoto. Four doors, 5 seats, and a hybrid! I immediately ordered one when I returned home and, within a month, I had my first Prius. This was followed by the much better second generation model, and a slightly larger “wagon” in France (which, unfortunately, isn’t suited to long-distance freeway driving in Europe).

Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive (an engineering marvel conceived in geek heaven) is now pervasive throughout its product line, from the tiny Corolla to the robust three-row Lexus RX (Lexus is Toyota’s luxury brand). While Prius sales have fallen to about half of their 2009 peak, Toyota — conservative but not asleep — continues to make money on its hybrids.

Toyota invented the modern car manufacturing process; it succeeded with hybrids when the kommentariat saw nothing but a dead end. The automotive press initially derided the Prius, especially in France where the now dethroned Auto-Journal declared hybrid technology, and the Prius in particular, as dead on arrival. So why hasn’t the company found ways to apply its development and production wizards to a world-beating BEV?

Toyota does have an EV (although not a BEV): the Mirai. The Mirai is a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV), it takes hydrogen from its tank, combines it with the ambient air’s oxygen, and outputs electricity (and water). Prices start at a Tesla-like $58.5K, with a 3-year/$15K worth of complementary fuel, five-minute refueling, and an “official” range of about 300 miles.

Elegant, futuristic…and lonely. I’ve seen one — and only one — here in Palo Alto (aka Tesla City), where new new vehicles are guaranteed to first appear (I just saw an Audi e-tron in front of a former house of ours).

Toyota, currently headed by a member of the Toyoda founding family, is a methodical, disciplined company that looks far down the road. Do they see a real, large-scale future for hydrogen FCEVs? Refueling could be an issue — hydrogen fueling stations in California are clustered in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, with a few along Interstates 80 and 5, with some locations (yellow) still “in development” — but that will change if FCEVs catch on:

Toyota’s next moves are going to be interesting to watch if (or when) the rest of the auto industry “sincerely” commits to BEVs.

— JLG@mondaynote.com